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SV Sandhausen 0–3 Regensburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Jan 16, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Heft

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Regensburg win41%2.40
SV Sandhausen win32%3.04
Draw27%3.60

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Sandhausen +0.2552%1.85
Regensburg +0.2548%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.79
Under46%2.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Steve Breitkreuz · Regensburg
20'🟨Sarpreet Singh · Regensburg
33'⚽Leon Guwara · Regensburg
52'⚽Carlo Boukhalfa · Regensburg
63'🟨Charlison Benschop · SV Sandhausen
70'🟨Benedikt Saller · Regensburg
89'🟨Dennis Diekmeier · SV Sandhausen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score2
6Shots15
1On target6
0Corners9
20Fouls15
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV SandhausenRegensburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.39
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.260.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.550.56
cards avg (last 5)2.401.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBWT-Stadion am Hardtwald
coach days137.001660.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d0.000.00
conversion (last 5)0.220.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-4.001.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.804.20
corners for avg (last 5)2.805.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.932.37
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.17
dominance (last 5)0.310.49
elo1391.241458.96
elo momentum (last 5)8.34-38.74
eye test v1-1.010.40
eye trend v1-0.39-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)57.1055.00
form points (last 5)5.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-1.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.202.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.481.16
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.50
keeper form v10.650.66
league points17.0028.00
league rank16.009.00
matches since blank13.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.006.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)69.4076.40
possession avg (last 5)37.6047.80
rest days29.7928.00
scorer concentration0.260.16
season ppg0.941.56
shot diff avg (last 5)-9.80-0.80
shots for avg (last 5)7.6014.60
skill v1-1.47-0.16
sot against avg (last 5)6.206.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.105.20
sot for avg (last 3)2.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)2.605.00
squad age29.2526.37
state index-0.61-0.72
sterile dominance v1-0.69-0.65
threat rate (last 10)0.240.29
threat rate (last 3)0.200.31
threat rate (last 5)0.210.31
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.00