← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Dec 18, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Thomsen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 43% | 2.26 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 29% | 3.35 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Nurnberg +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.85 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Nikola Dovedan · Nurnberg |
| 6' | 🟨 | Lino Tempelmann · Nurnberg |
| 8' | ⚽ | Jan Hochscheidt · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 22' | ⚽ | Nikola Dovedan · Nurnberg |
| 31' | 🟨 | Antonio Jonjić · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 58' | 🟨 | Nikola Dovedan · Nurnberg |
| 81' | ⚽ | Nikola Dovedan · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 47.00 | 535.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1391.12 | 1495.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.22 | -19.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.54 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.72 |
| league points | 14.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.07 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.80 | 26.84 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.70 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |