← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Dec 12, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Brych
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 36% | 2.65 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 35% | 2.92 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Erzgebirge AUE +0 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Morris Schröter · Dresden |
| 61' | ⚽ | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Dresden |
| 84' | 🟨 | Dirk Carlson · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 41.00 | 742.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1402.67 | 1408.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.67 | 1.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | 0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 46.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.67 |
| league points | 14.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.40 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | -0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 26.21 |
| state index | -0.34 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.54 | -1.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |