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Hamburger SV 3–0 Hansa Rostock

← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Dec 12, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Bacher

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win62%1.52
Draw22%4.61
Hansa Rostock win16%6.40

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV −153%1.85
Hansa Rostock −147%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over60%1.61
Under40%2.43

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV
18'⚽Ludovit Reis · Hamburger SV
28'🟨Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV
31'🟨Ludovit Reis · Hamburger SV
34'🟨John Verhoek · Hansa Rostock
40'🟨Jonas Meffert · Hamburger SV
52'🟨Lukas Fröde · Hansa Rostock
68'🟨Ryan Malone · Hansa Rostock
80'🟨Bentley Baxter Bahn · Hansa Rostock
80'⚽Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
17Shots13
10On target6
10Corners3
12Fouls12
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHamburger SVHansa Rostock
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.680.70
cards avg (last 5)1.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVolksparkstadion
Robin Meißner
· Hamburger SV
3.20
coach days164.001076.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.110.13
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.402.20
corners against avg (last 5)6.803.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.405.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.142.72
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.15
dominance (last 5)0.520.57
elo1577.391387.80
elo momentum (last 5)-0.9720.70
eye test v10.25-0.00
eye trend v10.040.13
first sub minute (last 10)59.6061.90
form points (last 5)8.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.801.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.160.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v10.830.68
league points26.0019.00
league rank8.0014.00
matches since blank0.005.00
matches since clean sheet1.007.00
matches since win1.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0070.60
possession avg (last 5)60.2051.60
rest days7.008.00
scorer concentration0.260.53
season ppg1.631.19
shot diff avg (last 5)0.803.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.0014.00
skill v11.25-0.44
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.903.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.604.40
squad age24.8328.42
state index0.42-0.16
sterile dominance v10.84-0.27
threat rate (last 10)0.240.24
threat rate (last 3)0.250.28
threat rate (last 5)0.240.26
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40