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Ingolstadt 1–2 Hannover

← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Dec 11, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Lechner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win43%2.26
Ingolstadt win30%3.31
Draw28%3.53

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover +0.2550%1.95
Ingolstadt +0.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.78
Over46%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Maximilian Beier · Hannover
29'⚽Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt
36'🟨Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt
37'⚽Linton Maina · Hannover
55'🟨Maximilian Beier · Hannover
75'🟨Rico Preißinger · Ingolstadt
87'🟨Jalen Hawkins · Ingolstadt
88'🟨Hendrik Weydandt · Hannover
90'🟨Denis Linsmayer · Ingolstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
8Shots13
3On target5
2Corners1
10Fouls14
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricIngolstadtHannover
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.230.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.24
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.580.60
cards avg (last 5)0.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueAudi-Sportpark
coach days10.0010.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.06
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.200.00
corners against avg (last 5)6.605.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.405.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.061.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.08
dominance (last 5)0.430.44
elo1375.941434.97
elo momentum (last 5)-22.503.35
eye test v1-0.38-0.27
eye trend v10.590.06
first sub minute (last 10)54.0051.70
form points (last 5)2.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.520.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.730.63
league points7.0017.00
league rank18.0014.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet11.000.00
matches since win11.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)64.2066.60
possession avg (last 5)37.2044.00
rest days7.006.00
scorer concentration0.250.36
season ppg0.441.06
shot diff avg (last 5)-4.80-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.6011.80
skill v1-1.97-1.30
sot against avg (last 5)5.203.60
sot for avg (last 10)2.503.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
squad age26.2227.74
state index-1.38-0.32
sterile dominance v1-1.79-0.96
threat rate (last 10)0.280.25
threat rate (last 3)0.320.29
threat rate (last 5)0.320.28
venue ppg (last 5)0.401.00