← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Dec 11, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Lechner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 43% | 2.26 |
| Ingolstadt win | 30% | 3.31 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hannover +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Ingolstadt +0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.78 |
| Over | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Maximilian Beier · Hannover |
| 29' | ⚽ | Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt |
| 36' | 🟨 | Marcel Gaus · Ingolstadt |
| 37' | ⚽ | Linton Maina · Hannover |
| 55' | 🟨 | Maximilian Beier · Hannover |
| 75' | 🟨 | Rico Preißinger · Ingolstadt |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jalen Hawkins · Ingolstadt |
| 88' | 🟨 | Hendrik Weydandt · Hannover |
| 90' | 🟨 | Denis Linsmayer · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Hannover |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Audi-Sportpark |
| coach days | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1375.94 | 1434.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.50 | 3.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.59 | 0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 7.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.97 | -1.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.22 | 27.74 |
| state index | -1.38 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.79 | -0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |