← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Dec 4, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Sather
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 43% | 2.25 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 29% | 3.26 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.61 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.79 |
| Under | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Manuel Schäffler · Nurnberg |
| 27' | 🟨 | Lewis Holtby · Holstein Kiel |
| 63' | ⚽ | Erik Shuranov · Nurnberg |
| 88' | ⚽ | Julian Korb · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Mathenia · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lino Tempelmann · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 521.00 | 64.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1500.85 | 1489.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.87 | 12.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | 0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 48.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| league points | 24.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.40 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.84 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.73 | 28.21 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |