← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Nov 28, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Gerach
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 65% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.60 |
| Ingolstadt win | 14% | 7.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt −1.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Hamburger SV −1.25 | 48% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.61 |
| Under | 41% | 2.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Faride Alidou · Hamburger SV |
| 39' | ⚽ | Bakery Jatta · Hamburger SV |
| 78' | 🟨 | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 89' | ⚽ | Manuel Wintzheimer · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 150.00 | 637.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.17 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1584.14 | 1380.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.35 | -27.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.76 | -0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.59 |
| league points | 23.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 67.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.80 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.09 | -1.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.54 | 27.71 |
| state index | 0.61 | -1.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -1.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |