← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Nov 27, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 40% | 2.48 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 34% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| SV Werder Bremen +0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.66 |
| Under | 41% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Ilia Gruev · SV Werder Bremen |
| 45' | ⚽ | Joshua Mees · Holstein Kiel |
| 57' | ⚽ | Niclas Füllkrug · SV Werder Bremen |
| 65' | ⚽ | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Philipp Sander · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Phil Neumann · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 17 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 57.00 | 26.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.79 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1478.66 | 1551.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.87 | -12.23 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.70 | 54.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| league points | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 56.40 |
| rest days | 6.29 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.75 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.44 | 26.87 |
| state index | -0.04 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |