← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Fri, Nov 26, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Koslowski
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg win | 44% | 2.22 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
| Dresden win | 27% | 3.57 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg −0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Dresden −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.94 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Carlo Boukhalfa · Regensburg |
| 34' | ⚽ | Benedikt Saller · Regensburg |
| 36' | 🟨 | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Dresden |
| 47' | ⚽ | Christoph Daferner · Dresden |
| 59' | 🟨 | Christoph Daferner · Dresden |
| 74' | 🟨 | Max Besuschkow · Regensburg |
| 80' | ⚽ | Kaan Caliskaner · Regensburg |
| 82' | ⚽ | Charalambos Makridis · Regensburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Robin Becker · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| coach days | 1609.00 | 726.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1486.70 | 1400.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.82 | -24.86 |
| eye test v1 | 0.45 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 43.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| league points | 25.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.62 | 25.24 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |