← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Fri, Nov 26, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Bacher
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 43% | 2.25 |
| Heidenheim win | 29% | 3.43 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.42 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Heidenheim −0.25 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Adam Bodzek · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 43' | 🟨 | Marcel Sobottka · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 79' | 🟨 | Felix Klaus · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | ⚽ | Robert Leipertz · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Dusseldorf | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Merkur Spiel-Arena |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 695.00 | 5200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.71 | 4.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1516.10 | 1480.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.79 | -29.42 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.61 |
| league points | 16.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.14 | 27.69 |
| state index | -0.21 | -0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |