← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Nov 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Jöllenbeck
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 38% | 2.55 |
| Dresden win | 32% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.33 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Dresden +0 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.86 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Michael Akoto · Dresden |
| 42' | 🟨 | Christoph Klarer · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 43' | ⚽ (pen) | Christoph Daferner · Dresden |
| 66' | 🟨 | Christoph Daferner · Dresden |
| 85' | 🟨 | Tim Christopher Oberdorf · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 88' | 🟨 | Agyemang Diawusie · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 721.00 | 690.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1388.23 | 1528.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.20 | -15.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 40.20 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| league points | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 15.79 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.31 | 27.60 |
| state index | -1.05 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | -0.85 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |