← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Nov 7, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Günsch
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 45% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 27% | 3.59 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim +0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Erzgebirge AUE +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | Antonio Jonjić · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 45' | ⚽ | Antonio Jonjić · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 54' | 🟨 | Maurice Malone · Heidenheim |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jan Schöppner · Heidenheim |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jonas Föhrenbach · Heidenheim |
| 75' | 🟨 | Sam Schreck · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 6.00 | 5181.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 4.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1390.89 | 1488.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.54 | -25.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| league points | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 8.04 | 8.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 27.84 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | -0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |