← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Nov 7, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Günsch
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Heidenheim win | 45% | 2.16 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 27% | 3.59 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Heidenheim +0.25 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Erzgebirge AUE +0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand