← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Fri, Nov 5, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Heft
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 50% | 1.94 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 |
| Dresden win | 23% | 4.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.5 | 51% | 1.94 |
| Dresden −0.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Lewis Holtby · Holstein Kiel |
| 32' | ⚽ | Heinz Mörschel · Dresden |
| 44' | 🟨 | Michael Sollbauer · Dresden |
| 45' | 🟨 | Christoph Daferner · Dresden |
| 65' | ⚽ (pen) | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 66' | ⚽ | Fabian Reese · Holstein Kiel |
| 86' | 🟨 | Robin Becker · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 35.00 | 705.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1481.38 | 1394.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.75 | -19.87 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 41.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 11.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 6.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.94 | -0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.58 | 25.87 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |