⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Karlsruhe 2–4 SC Paderborn 07

← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Oct 31, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Gerach

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win37%2.66
Karlsruhe win36%2.62
Draw27%3.70

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe +050%1.93
SC Paderborn 07 +050%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.64
Under41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Julian Justvan · SC Paderborn 07
23'⚽Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07
29'⚽Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07
32'⚽Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07
45'🟨Jérôme Gondorf · Karlsruhe
61'🟨Tim Breithaupt · Karlsruhe
68'⚽Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe
69'⚽Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe
76'🟨Christoph Kobald · Karlsruhe
87'🟨Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score4
19Shots11
8On target8
5Corners3
14Fouls10
5Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheSC Paderborn 07
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.44
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.45
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.44
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.15
box share (last 5)0.620.66
cards avg (last 5)2.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBBBank Wildpark
Malik Batmaz
· Karlsruhe
2.00
coach days638.00122.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.13
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.806.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.805.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.082.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.08
dominance (last 5)0.440.45
elo1498.781541.66
elo momentum (last 5)-11.99-3.69
eye test v1-0.231.08
eye trend v1-0.240.18
first sub minute (last 10)60.7059.50
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.40
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.40
keeper form v10.670.80
league points16.0018.00
league rank9.008.00
matches since blank7.005.00
matches since clean sheet7.006.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.6077.20
possession avg (last 5)53.0051.20
rest days8.048.83
scorer concentration0.290.38
season ppg1.451.64
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.20-3.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.2015.60
skill v10.150.09
sot against avg (last 5)5.207.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.105.50
sot for avg (last 3)3.007.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.806.60
state index-0.230.20
sterile dominance v10.29-0.40
threat rate (last 10)0.250.27
threat rate (last 3)0.210.33
threat rate (last 5)0.230.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.60