← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Oct 30, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 57% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.19 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 20% | 5.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −0.75 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.51 |
| Under | 36% | 2.66 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Julian Korb · Holstein Kiel |
| 12' | ⚽ (pen) | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 28' | 🟨 | Simon Lorenz · Holstein Kiel |
| 46' | ⚽ | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 74' | 🟨 | Jonas David · Hamburger SV |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lewis Holtby · Holstein Kiel |
| 80' | 🟨 | Miro Muheim · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manuel Wintzheimer · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Philipp Sander · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 121.00 | 29.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.17 | 2.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1578.36 | 1477.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.11 | -32.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 49.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| league points | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.20 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 8.08 | 7.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.52 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.55 | 27.85 |
| state index | 0.46 | -0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.05 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |