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FC Schalke 04 3–0 Dresden

← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Oct 23, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC Schalke 04 win60%1.61
Draw24%4.00
Dresden win15%6.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Dresden −153%1.84
FC Schalke 04 −147%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under51%1.89
Over49%1.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Thomas Ouwejan · FC Schalke 04
44'🟨Chris Löwe · Dresden
45'🟨Yaroslav Mikhailov · FC Schalke 04
45'🟨Michael Sollbauer · Dresden
48'🟨Marcin Kamiński · FC Schalke 04
78'⚽Marius Bülter · FC Schalke 04
90'⚽Marcin Kamiński · FC Schalke 04

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
12Shots18
8On target5
2Corners9
12Fouls8
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC Schalke 04Dresden
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.350.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.25
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.05
box share (last 5)0.590.57
cards avg (last 5)2.002.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVELTINS-Arena
coach days236.00692.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.06
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)3.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.671.85
defensive leak (last 5)0.040.09
dominance (last 5)0.630.43
elo1537.391415.81
elo momentum (last 5)32.29-10.27
eye test v10.59-0.58
eye trend v1-0.38-0.43
first sub minute (last 10)57.7041.70
form points (last 5)12.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.34
h2 goals (last 10)0.901.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
keeper form v10.600.73
league points19.0013.00
league rank3.0012.00
matches since blank10.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.2072.60
possession avg (last 5)51.8052.40
rest days8.086.29
scorer concentration0.650.38
season ppg1.901.30
shot diff avg (last 5)5.80-3.60
shots for avg (last 5)15.2011.20
skill v1-0.01-0.21
sot against avg (last 5)2.204.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.904.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.333.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.20
squad age27.3025.99
state index0.69-0.58
sterile dominance v1-0.480.03
threat rate (last 10)0.320.26
threat rate (last 3)0.300.26
threat rate (last 5)0.310.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.80