← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Oct 23, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: T. Siewer
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 41% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.36 |
| Heidenheim win | 29% | 3.34 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Nurnberg −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Mats Møller Dæhli · Nurnberg |
| 51' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Heidenheim |
| 52' | ⚽ | Erik Shuranov · Nurnberg |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jan Schöppner · Heidenheim |
| 66' | ⚽ | Johannes Geis · Nurnberg |
| 80' | 🟨 | Andreas Geipl · Heidenheim |
| 89' | ⚽ (og) | Maurice Malone · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 479.00 | 5166.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 4.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1510.72 | 1493.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.39 | -2.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.70 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.69 |
| league points | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.75 | 27.06 |
| state index | 0.29 | -0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.85 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |