← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Fri, Oct 22, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: N. Winter
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 40% | 2.44 |
| Ingolstadt win | 32% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt −0.25 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Erzgebirge AUE −0.25 | 46% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.88 |
| Under | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Sören Gonther · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 61' | 🟨 | Antonio Jonjić · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 62' | ⚽ | Omar Sijaric · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 74' | 🟨 | Thomas Keller · Ingolstadt |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sam Schreck · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 89' | 🟥 | Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefan Kutschke · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.16 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.15 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| coach days | 21.00 | 600.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 2.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1378.90 | 1407.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.95 | -45.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.14 | -0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.70 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.56 |
| league points | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 41.20 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.80 |
| squad age | 27.41 | 27.06 |
| state index | -1.24 | -1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.31 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |