← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Oct 17, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg win | 37% | 2.63 |
| Dresden win | 33% | 2.93 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.27 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Dresden +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.78 |
| Over | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Johannes Geis · Nurnberg |
| 21' | ⚽ | Tom Krauß · Nurnberg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Philipp Hosiner · Dresden |
| 49' | 🟨 | Robin Becker · Dresden |
| 62' | 🟨 | Christopher Schindler · Nurnberg |
| 67' | 🟨 | Lukas Schleimer · Nurnberg |
| 79' | 🟨 | Asger Sørensen · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion |
| coach days | 686.00 | 473.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1425.36 | 1501.18 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.14 | 16.19 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.62 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 43.10 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.82 |
| league points | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.71 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.31 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 25.90 | 26.34 |
| state index | -0.49 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.10 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |