← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Oct 17, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: F. Lechner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 41% | 2.33 |
| Darmstadt win | 32% | 3.03 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.71 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt +0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| SV Werder Bremen +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.54 |
| Under | 38% | 2.59 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Lars Lukas Mai · SV Werder Bremen |
| 11' | 🟨 | Marco Friedl · SV Werder Bremen |
| 14' | 🟨 | Tobias Kempe · Darmstadt |
| 45' | ⚽ | Fabian Holland · Darmstadt |
| 63' | 🟨 | Phillip Tietz · Darmstadt |
| 65' | ⚽ | Luca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt |
| 71' | ⚽ | Luca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt |
| 79' | 🟨 | Matthias Bader · Darmstadt |
| 85' | 🟨 | Braydon Manu · Darmstadt |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bittencourt · SV Werder Bremen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 108.00 | 108.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.08 | 1.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1538.94 | 1563.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.42 | -7.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 55.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.64 |
| league points | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.35 | 23.85 |
| state index | 0.70 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |