← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Oct 16, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Dingert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 49% | 1.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 25% | 3.88 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf −0.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Hamburger SV −0.5 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.67 |
| Under | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 25' | 🟥 | Edgar Prib · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 41' | 🟨 | Rouwen Hennings · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 45' | 🟨 | Tim Leibold · Hamburger SV |
| 71' | ⚽ | Róbert Boženík · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 86' | 🟨 | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 107.00 | 654.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.12 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1569.79 | 1531.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.97 | -13.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 61.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| league points | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 15.08 | 14.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.83 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.89 | 27.30 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.52 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |