← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Oct 16, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 59% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.09 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 17% | 6.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −0.75 | 54% | 1.82 |
| Erzgebirge AUE −0.75 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.73 |
| Under | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Tim Breithaupt · Karlsruhe |
| 28' | 🟨 | Sam Schreck · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 46' | ⚽ | Fabian Schleusener · Karlsruhe |
| 67' | ⚽ | Philipp Hofmann · Karlsruhe |
| 74' | 🟨 | Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 80' | 🟥 | Marius Gersbeck · Karlsruhe |
| 83' | ⚽ | Anthony Barylla · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jan Hochscheidt · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 89' | 🟨 | Antonio Mance · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 22 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | BBBank Wildpark |
| coach days | 623.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1504.98 | 1384.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.96 | -34.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.10 | 51.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| league points | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.93 | 27.46 |
| state index | -0.22 | -1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.02 | -1.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |