← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Oct 16, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Braun
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 39% | 2.52 |
| Ingolstadt win | 33% | 2.92 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0 | 53% | 1.82 |
| Ingolstadt +0 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 31' | 🟨 | Rico Preißinger · Ingolstadt |
| 45' | 🟨 | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 46' | ⚽ | Stefan Kutschke · Ingolstadt |
| 69' | 🟨 | Dennis Eckert · Ingolstadt |
| 69' | 🟨 | Stefan Thesker · Holstein Kiel |
| 81' | 🟨 | Denis Linsmayer · Ingolstadt |
| 85' | 🟨 | Stefan Kutschke · Ingolstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.12 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Audi-Sportpark |
| coach days | 594.00 | 15.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1407.27 | 1476.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.97 | -20.44 |
| eye test v1 | -1.13 | 0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 47.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.62 |
| league points | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.80 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.44 | 0.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.49 | 1.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.86 | 27.06 |
| state index | -1.04 | -0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.09 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |