← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Fri, Oct 1, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: L. Koslowski
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 62% | 1.55 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.80 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 17% | 5.88 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV +1 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Erzgebirge AUE +1 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.48 |
| Under | 35% | 2.77 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Antonio Jonjić · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 30' | 🟨 | Manuel Wintzheimer · Hamburger SV |
| 32' | 🟨 | Ben Zolinski · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 32' | 🟨 | Sonny Kittel · Hamburger SV |
| 60' | 🟨 | Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 69' | 🟥 | Soufiane Messeguem · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 79' | 🟨 | Anssi Suhonen · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Dirk Carlson · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Erzgebirge AUE | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Erzgebirgsstadion |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 0.00 | 92.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1380.46 | 1573.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -57.79 | 17.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.26 | 0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.20 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.38 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | 1.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.40 | 25.75 |
| state index | -1.47 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.36 | 1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |