← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Fri, Sep 24, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Brych
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg win | 58% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 18% | 5.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Regensburg −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Erzgebirge AUE −0.75 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.69 |
| Under | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Jan-Niklas Beste · Regensburg |
| 7' | ⚽ | Jan-Niklas Beste · Regensburg |
| 11' | ⚽ | Max Besuschkow · Regensburg |
| 28' | 🟨 | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
| 39' | 🟨 | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 52' | ⚽ | Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 64' | 🟨 | Clemens Fandrich · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 87' | ⚽ | Gaëtan Bussmann · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Anthony Barylla · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | 🟨 | Soufiane Messeguem · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 90' | ⚽ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Regensburg | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Jahnstadion Regensburg |
| Andreas Albers · Regensburg |
| coach days | 1546.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1478.14 | 1386.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.12 | -48.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| league points | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | — |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.33 | -1.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 25.55 | 27.38 |
| state index | 0.22 | -1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | -1.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |