← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Sep 18, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 46% | 2.15 |
| Hamburger SV win | 28% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Hamburger SV −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.61 |
| Under | 40% | 2.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | wohninvest WESERSTADION |