← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Sep 18, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Stegemann
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen win | 46% | 2.15 |
| Hamburger SV win | 28% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SV Werder Bremen −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Hamburger SV −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.61 |
| Under | 40% | 2.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 5 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 15 |
| 7 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SV Werder Bremen | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | wohninvest WESERSTADION |
| 🟨 |
| Moritz Heyer · Hamburger SV |
| 68' | 🟨 | Roger Assalé · SV Werder Bremen |
| 69' | 🟨 | Tim Leibold · Hamburger SV |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ilia Gruev · SV Werder Bremen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jean-Manuel Mbom · SV Werder Bremen |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 79.00 | 79.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1591.43 | 1558.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.81 | -14.76 |
| eye test v1 | 1.26 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.60 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.69 |
| league points | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 66.20 |
| rest days | 7.29 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | 1.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.88 | 26.16 |
| state index | 0.53 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 1.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |