← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Aug 29, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: D. Aytekin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden win | 39% | 2.49 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 33% | 2.87 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.63 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden +0 | 53% | 1.83 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.28 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 24' | ⚽ | Kai Pröger · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 26' | ⚽ | Kai Pröger · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 29' | 🟨 | Jasper van der Werff · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 32' | 🟨 | Marcel Mehlem · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 53' | 🟨 | Philipp Hosiner · Dresden |
| 61' | 🟨 | Michael Sollbauer · Dresden |
| 90' | 🟥 | Robin Becker · Dresden |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Dresden | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion |
| coach days | 637.00 | 59.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.11 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1441.50 | 1543.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 53.21 | 30.28 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.60 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 2.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| league points | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.71 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 0.45 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.80 | 27.03 |
| state index | 0.52 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.64 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |