← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Aug 28, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: N. Winter
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 57% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.84 |
| Erzgebirge AUE win | 18% | 5.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Erzgebirge AUE −0.75 | 50% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.72 |
| Under | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel |
| 37' | ⚽ | Jann-Fiete Arp · Holstein Kiel |
| 52' | 🟨 | Dimitriy Nazarov · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 59' | 🟨 | Soufiane Messeguem · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ben Zolinski · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 81' | ⚽ | Joshua Mees · Holstein Kiel |
| 83' | 🟨 | John-Patrick Strauss · Erzgebirge AUE |
| 87' | 🟨 | Dirk Carlson · Erzgebirge AUE |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 17 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Erzgebirge AUE |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 727.00 | 58.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.59 | 3.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1497.23 | 1418.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -76.01 | -7.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| league points | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.79 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.82 | -1.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.81 | 27.11 |
| state index | -1.16 | -0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |