← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Aug 22, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 56% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.35 |
| Darmstadt win | 20% | 4.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Darmstadt −0.75 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.46 |
| Under | 34% | 2.82 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ (pen) | Phillip Tietz · Darmstadt |
| 30' | ⚽ | Sebastian Schonlau · Hamburger SV |
| 34' | 🟨 | Klaus Gjasula · Darmstadt |
| 34' | 🟨 | Emir Karić · Darmstadt |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jannik Müller · Darmstadt |
| 45' | ⚽ | Moritz Heyer · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | ⚽ | Phillip Tietz · Darmstadt |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jonas Meffert · Hamburger SV |
| 75' | 🟨 | Anssi Suhonen · Hamburger SV |
| 84' | 🟨 | Clemens Riedel · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Darmstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.46 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 52.00 | 52.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 2.64 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1556.36 | 1525.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.29 | 3.69 |
| eye test v1 | 1.04 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | -0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 1.90 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| league points | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.60 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.45 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.51 | 25.23 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |