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Darmstadt 6–1 Ingolstadt

← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Aug 15, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Bacher

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ingolstadt win37%2.70
Darmstadt win35%2.75
Draw28%3.53

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Darmstadt +050%1.94
Ingolstadt +050%1.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over54%1.81
Under46%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

29'⚽Phillip Tietz · Darmstadt
36'🟨Klaus Gjasula · Darmstadt
39'⚽Luca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt
45'🟨Thomas Keller · Ingolstadt
45'⚽Fabian Schnellhardt · Darmstadt
45'⚽Phillip Tietz · Darmstadt
50'⚽Stefan Kutschke · Ingolstadt
51'🟨Rico Preißinger · Ingolstadt
66'⚽Luca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt
72'🟨Matthias Bader · Darmstadt
87'🟨Dennis Eckert · Ingolstadt
90'⚽Braydon Manu · Darmstadt

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score0
20Shots6
9On target2
5Corners1
10Fouls16
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricDarmstadtIngolstadt
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.250.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.15
box share (last 5)0.560.59
cards avg (last 5)1.800.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMerck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor
coach days45.00532.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d1.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.220.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.00-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.402.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.642.33
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.12
dominance (last 5)0.400.45
elo1512.781449.78
elo momentum (last 5)1.33-28.05
eye test v1-0.46-0.47
eye trend v1-0.75-0.63
first sub minute (last 10)62.5055.90
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.521.25
h2 goals (last 10)1.501.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.45
keeper form v10.550.50
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet15.003.00
matches since win2.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.2065.00
possession avg (last 5)45.0037.40
rest days15.7915.00
season ppg0.000.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-5.40-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)8.6012.60
skill v1-0.18-1.89
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)4.404.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.40
squad age24.6924.85
state index-0.10-0.58
sterile dominance v10.04-1.79
threat rate (last 10)0.280.35
threat rate (last 3)0.180.33
threat rate (last 5)0.210.33
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.60