← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Aug 15, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Bacher
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 37% | 2.70 |
| Darmstadt win | 35% | 2.75 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Darmstadt +0 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Ingolstadt +0 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.81 |
| Under | 46% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ | Phillip Tietz · Darmstadt |
| 36' | 🟨 | Klaus Gjasula · Darmstadt |
| 39' | ⚽ | Luca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt |
| 45' | 🟨 | Thomas Keller · Ingolstadt |
| 45' | ⚽ | Fabian Schnellhardt · Darmstadt |
| 45' | ⚽ | Phillip Tietz · Darmstadt |
| 50' | ⚽ | Stefan Kutschke · Ingolstadt |
| 51' | 🟨 | Rico Preißinger · Ingolstadt |
| 66' | ⚽ | Luca Pfeiffer · Darmstadt |
| 72' | 🟨 | Matthias Bader · Darmstadt |
| 87' | 🟨 | Dennis Eckert · Ingolstadt |
| 90' | ⚽ | Braydon Manu · Darmstadt |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 4 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Darmstadt | Ingolstadt |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor |
| coach days | 45.00 | 532.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1512.78 | 1449.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.33 | -28.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.46 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.75 | -0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.50 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 65.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 37.40 |
| rest days | 15.79 | 15.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | -1.89 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 24.69 | 24.85 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -1.79 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |