← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Aug 14, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: F. Lechner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 44% | 2.23 |
| Regensburg win | 28% | 3.47 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.60 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Regensburg −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.86 |
| Under | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Erik Wekesser · Regensburg |
| 20' | ⚽ | Max Besuschkow · Regensburg |
| 40' | ⚽ | Benedikt Gimber · Regensburg |
| 58' | ⚽ (og) | Julian Korb · Regensburg |
| 65' | 🟨 | Sarpreet Singh · Regensburg |
| 72' | 🟨 | Hólmbert Aron Friðjónsson · Holstein Kiel |
| 85' | 🟨 | Steve Breitkreuz · Regensburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Regensburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| coach days | 713.00 | 1505.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1517.77 | 1449.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -62.71 | 37.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 0.73 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.77 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 54.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 27.04 | 25.84 |
| state index | -0.77 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |