← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Aug 1, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: P. Ittrich
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 42% | 2.30 |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 31% | 3.20 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| FC Schalke 04 −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.77 |
| Under | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · FC Schalke 04 |
| 5' | 🟨 | Phil Neumann · Holstein Kiel |
| 14' | 🟨 | Patrick Erras · Holstein Kiel |
| 21' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · FC Schalke 04 |
| 25' | 🟨 | Florian Flick · FC Schalke 04 |
| 48' | 🟨 | Blendi Idrizi · FC Schalke 04 |
| 68' | ⚽ | Marius Bülter · FC Schalke 04 |
| 70' | 🟨 | Alexander Mühling · Holstein Kiel |
| 85' | 🟨 | Marvin Pieringer · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 700.00 | 153.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 1.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1540.79 | 1487.22 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.11 | -18.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.92 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 36.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.71 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.32 | -1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.40 | 28.16 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.75 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.37 | -1.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.00 |