← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sun, Aug 1, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 59% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 |
| Dresden win | 17% | 6.00 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Dresden −1 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Hamburger SV −1 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.68 |
| Under | 43% | 2.29 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Ludovit Reis · Hamburger SV |
| 10' | 🟨 | Manuel Wintzheimer · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | 🟨 | Christoph Daferner · Dresden |
| 59' | 🟨 | Luca Herrmann · Dresden |
| 66' | 🟨 | Maximilian Rohr · Hamburger SV |
| 68' | ⚽ | Tim Knipping · Dresden |
| 80' | 🟨 | Tim Leibold · Hamburger SV |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mikkel Kaufmann · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| coach days | 31.00 | 609.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1573.01 | 1406.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.79 | 17.23 |
| eye test v1 | 1.15 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.20 | 53.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.63 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 8.71 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.28 | 0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.35 | 27.03 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.61 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |