← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Sat, Jul 31, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Hartmann
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Heidenheim win | 41% | 2.38 |
| Ingolstadt win | 30% | 3.23 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt +0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Heidenheim +0.25 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.88 |
| Over | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 59' | ⚽ | Filip Bilbija · Ingolstadt |
| 67' | 🟨 | Oliver Hüsing · Heidenheim |
| 68' | 🟨 | Dominik Franke · Ingolstadt |
| 73' | ⚽ | Patrick Schmidt · Heidenheim |
| 75' | ⚽ | Tim Kleindienst · Heidenheim |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ingolstadt | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| venue | Audi-Sportpark |
| coach days | 517.00 | 5082.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1460.35 | 1500.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.01 | -41.20 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.52 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 53.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.60 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.03 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.39 | 26.74 |
| state index | -0.27 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.86 | 0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |