← 2. Bundesliga 2021 · Fri, Jul 30, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 36% | 2.70 |
| Nurnberg win | 36% | 2.70 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.64 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Nurnberg +0 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.85 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Jannis Heuer · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dennis Srbeny · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 52' | 🟨 | Lino Tempelmann · Nurnberg |
| 54' | ⚽ | Mats Møller Dæhli · Nurnberg |
| 56' | 🟨 | Asger Sørensen · Nurnberg |
| 58' | ⚽ | Manuel Schäffler · Nurnberg |
| 73' | 🟨 | Florian Hübner · Nurnberg |
| 83' | 🟨 | Fabian Nürnberger · Nurnberg |
| 85' | ⚽ | Sven Michel · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Benteler-Arena |
| coach days | 29.00 | 394.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.92 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1511.00 | 1465.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.79 | 2.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | — |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 5.21 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.50 | -0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.51 | 25.61 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.05 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |