← Segunda División 2021 · Fri, May 20, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza win | 49% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.50 |
| Lugo win | 23% | 4.45 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Zaragoza −0.5 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Lugo −0.5 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.74 |
| Over | 44% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Cristian Álvarez · Zaragoza |
| 42' | 🟨 | Josep Chavarría · Zaragoza |
| 51' | 🟨 | Sebas Moyano · Lugo |
| 59' | 🟥 | Xavi Torres · Lugo |
| 74' | ⚽ | Valentín Vada · Zaragoza |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alberto Rodríguez · Lugo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Zaragoza | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Estadio de la Romareda |
| coach days | 19.00 | 414.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.98 | 1.93 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1489.86 | 1443.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.17 | -44.84 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.20 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| league points | 57.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 70.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | -0.86 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.95 | 27.94 |
| state index | -0.65 | -1.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | -0.64 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |