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Tenerife 0–2 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, May 15, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife win56%1.72
Draw27%3.60
Málaga CF win17%5.99

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife −0.7550%1.95
Málaga CF −0.7550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under58%1.65
Over42%2.34

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Álvaro Vadillo · Málaga CF
31'🟨Víctor Olmo · Málaga CF
37'🟨Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
48'⚽Aleix Febas · Málaga CF
57'🟨Mathieu Peybernes · Málaga CF
71'🟨Enric Gallego · Tenerife
85'🟨Míchel Herrero · Tenerife
85'🟨Pablo Chavarria · Málaga CF
86'🟨Carlos Pomares · Tenerife
90'🟨Brandon · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
13Shots6
3On target4
6Corners1
13Fouls16
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricTenerifeMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.10
box share (last 5)0.700.71
cards avg (last 5)1.804.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Heliodoro Rodríguez Lopéz
coach days560.0044.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.14
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-3.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.807.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.404.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.122.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.07
dominance (last 5)0.540.42
elo1602.821409.79
elo momentum (last 5)37.0320.03
eye test v1-0.06-0.37
eye trend v1-0.08-0.22
first sub minute (last 10)54.2047.50
form points (last 5)13.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.200.00
goals against avg (last 5)0.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.10
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.15
keeper form v10.760.67
league points79.0046.00
league rank4.0017.00
matches since blank2.000.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.0079.20
possession avg (last 5)40.6049.40
rest days6.008.11
scorer concentration0.220.19
season ppg1.841.07
shot diff avg (last 5)1.00-5.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.609.80
skill v1-0.840.20
sot against avg (last 5)3.205.20
sot for avg (last 10)4.203.20
sot for avg (last 3)3.672.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.20
squad age29.9726.58
state index0.70-0.28
sterile dominance v1-0.920.32
threat rate (last 10)0.270.19
threat rate (last 3)0.270.15
threat rate (last 5)0.290.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.001.20