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Lugo 1–3 Fuenlabrada

← Segunda División 2021 · Sat, May 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Lugo win53%1.85
Draw27%3.62
Fuenlabrada win19%5.43

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fuenlabrada −0.7553%1.90
Lugo −0.7547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under54%1.83
Over46%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

5'⚽ (pen)Pedro León · Fuenlabrada
27'🟨Xavi Torres · Lugo
27'🟨Mikel Iribas · Fuenlabrada
30'🟨Ricard Sánchez · Lugo
39'⚽Josep Señé · Lugo
59'⚽Aboubakary Kanté · Fuenlabrada
60'🟨Óscar Whalley · Lugo
72'🟨Pedro León · Fuenlabrada
87'🟨Javier Ontiveros · Fuenlabrada
90'⚽Roman Zozulya · Fuenlabrada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
14Shots14
5On target8
5Corners5
18Fouls17
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLugoFuenlabrada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.51
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.52
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
box share (last 5)0.660.64
cards avg (last 5)1.205.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Anxo Carro
coach days408.0074.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.40-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.205.80
corners for avg (last 5)2.805.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.082.98
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.20
dominance (last 5)0.510.39
elo1465.451364.90
elo momentum (last 5)-15.35-43.10
eye test v1-0.270.13
eye trend v10.160.57
first sub minute (last 10)57.8054.30
form points (last 5)5.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.202.40
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.350.25
keeper form v10.730.65
league points51.0031.00
league rank16.0023.00
matches since blank1.007.00
matches since clean sheet2.008.00
matches since win4.008.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.2072.20
possession avg (last 5)42.6046.20
rest days5.917.00
scorer concentration0.190.27
season ppg1.190.74
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-5.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.809.60
skill v1-1.05-0.63
sot against avg (last 5)3.405.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.70
sot for avg (last 3)3.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.60
squad age26.7328.18
state index-0.43-1.57
sterile dominance v1-0.99-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.240.22
threat rate (last 3)0.270.26
threat rate (last 5)0.290.21
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.00