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Girona 0–1 Tenerife

← Segunda División 2021 · Mon, May 9, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Jon González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Girona win45%2.30
Draw30%3.21
Tenerife win25%4.25

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Tenerife −0.553%1.81
Girona −0.547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.58
Over39%2.49

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

40'⚽Mario González · Tenerife
45'🟨Christian Stuani · Girona
45'🟨Juan Soriano · Tenerife
62'🟨Eladio Zorrilla Jiménez · Tenerife
76'🟨Álex Baena · Girona
86'🟨Aitor Sanz · Tenerife
87'🟨Samu Sáiz · Girona
90'🟨Álex Baena · Girona
90'🟥Álex Baena · Girona
90'🟨Andrés Martín · Tenerife

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
16Shots8
5On target5
6Corners6
11Fouls16
4Yellow cards4
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGironaTenerife
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.660.74
cards avg (last 5)2.001.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadi Municipal de Montilivi
coach days312.00554.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.13
corner diff avg (last 5)3.00-0.40
corners against avg (last 5)1.804.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.803.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.632.08
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.08
dominance (last 5)0.600.55
elo1607.681590.64
elo momentum (last 5)-17.7132.49
eye test v10.74-0.32
eye trend v10.19-0.07
first sub minute (last 10)57.5054.20
form points (last 5)9.0013.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.201.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)1.491.07
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.35
keeper form v10.760.73
league points70.0076.00
league rank6.004.00
matches since blank1.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)86.0077.00
possession avg (last 5)55.4046.40
rest days8.218.11
scorer concentration0.310.23
season ppg1.711.81
shot diff avg (last 5)4.401.60
shots for avg (last 5)14.0012.20
skill v11.21-0.19
sot against avg (last 5)2.403.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.604.00
sot for avg (last 3)7.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.40
squad age26.4230.02
state index0.560.84
sterile dominance v10.55-0.37
threat rate (last 10)0.250.27
threat rate (last 3)0.300.29
threat rate (last 5)0.260.27
venue ppg (last 5)3.002.40