⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Eibar 0–2 Valladolid

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, May 8, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Luis Milla

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar win38%2.62
Valladolid win33%3.09
Draw29%3.33

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid −0.2554%1.81
Eibar −0.2546%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.95
Under50%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'🟨José Corpas · Eibar
13'🟨Chema · Eibar
25'🟨Esteban Burgos · Eibar
34'🟨Nacho Martinez · Valladolid
59'🟨Álvaro Aguado · Valladolid
68'⚽ (pen)Nacho Martinez · Valladolid
71'🟨Ager Aketxe · Eibar
80'⚽Shon Weissman · Valladolid
90'🟨Javier Muñoz · Eibar

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
7Shots11
0On target4
6Corners4
19Fouls12
5Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricEibarValladolid
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.380.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.27
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.390.32
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.680.63
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Ipurúa
coach days341.00341.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.16
corner diff avg (last 5)2.402.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.204.80
corners for avg (last 5)6.607.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.952.54
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.16
dominance (last 5)0.610.57
elo1639.921598.06
elo momentum (last 5)-12.26-31.81
eye test v10.940.26
eye trend v10.26-0.17
first sub minute (last 10)47.2043.60
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.601.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.851.42
h2 goals (last 10)1.001.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.40
keeper form v10.84—
league points86.0078.00
league rank1.003.00
matches since blank3.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win0.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.0082.40
possession avg (last 5)47.6059.00
rest days7.915.79
scorer concentration0.360.27
season ppg2.051.86
shot diff avg (last 5)5.803.20
shots for avg (last 5)16.2013.80
skill v1-0.471.12
sot against avg (last 5)3.603.00
sot for avg (last 10)5.904.60
sot for avg (last 3)7.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.404.60
squad age29.4027.39
state index0.560.00
sterile dominance v1-0.970.79
threat rate (last 10)0.290.25
threat rate (last 3)0.360.24
threat rate (last 5)0.340.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.00