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Amorebieta 2–1 Fuenlabrada

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, May 1, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Iosu Galech

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amorebieta win53%2.20
Draw27%3.94
Fuenlabrada win20%5.98

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amorebieta −0.7553%1.83
Fuenlabrada −0.7547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.87
Over47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽ (pen)Peru Nolaskoain Esnal · Amorebieta
55'⚽Gorka Guruzeta · Amorebieta
69'🟨Alberto Rodríguez · Fuenlabrada
72'🟨Alejandro Sotillos · Fuenlabrada
77'🟨Lander Olaetxea · Amorebieta
83'⚽Brahim Konate · Fuenlabrada
90'🟨Brahim Konate · Fuenlabrada
90'🟨Alejandro Sotillos · Fuenlabrada
90'🟥Alejandro Sotillos · Fuenlabrada

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
17Shots13
7On target7
6Corners9
9Fouls15
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmorebietaFuenlabrada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.50
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.20
box share (last 5)0.700.69
cards avg (last 5)2.604.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueInstalaciones de Lezama Campo 2
coach days61.0061.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.17
corner diff avg (last 5)1.801.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.806.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.972.84
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.24
dominance (last 5)0.580.40
elo1423.981393.00
elo momentum (last 5)1.08-38.42
eye test v10.32-0.58
eye trend v10.440.02
first sub minute (last 10)59.0057.10
form points (last 5)6.000.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-1.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.203.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.600.61
league points35.0031.00
league rank20.0023.00
matches since blank3.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.005.00
matches since win2.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.0073.00
possession avg (last 5)45.0046.20
rest days8.007.91
scorer concentration0.270.25
season ppg0.850.79
shot diff avg (last 5)3.40-4.80
shots for avg (last 5)13.008.80
skill v1-0.91-0.56
sot against avg (last 5)2.805.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.203.00
squad age28.0728.82
state index-0.19-1.41
sterile dominance v1-0.920.02
threat rate (last 10)0.280.23
threat rate (last 3)0.300.17
threat rate (last 5)0.300.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.400.00