⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Leganes 0–3 Málaga CF

← Segunda División 2021 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Aitor Gorostegui

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Leganes win47%2.05
Draw31%3.13
Málaga CF win22%4.59

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Málaga CF −0.552%1.88
Leganes −0.548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under66%1.46
Over34%2.86

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'🟨Genaro · Málaga CF
36'🟨Sergio González · Leganes
54'🟨Ramón Enríquez · Málaga CF
57'⚽ (pen)Álvaro Vadillo · Málaga CF
63'⚽ (pen)Antoñin · Málaga CF
68'🟨Jozabed Sánchez · Málaga CF
83'🟨Kenneth Omeruo · Leganes
85'⚽Sekou Gassama · Málaga CF

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
6Shots9
2On target5
8Corners4
23Fouls18
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLeganesMálaga CF
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.520.72
cards avg (last 5)3.203.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Butarque
coach days470.0015.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.140.03
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.401.40
corners against avg (last 5)4.003.80
corners for avg (last 5)3.605.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.492.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.09
dominance (last 5)0.540.45
elo1521.951394.53
elo momentum (last 5)-24.06-16.22
eye test v1-0.56-0.21
eye trend v10.040.18
first sub minute (last 10)55.6057.10
form points (last 5)5.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.400.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.970.85
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.30
h2h win rate (last 5)1.000.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.25
keeper form v10.600.62
league points47.0042.00
league rank16.0017.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.004.00
matches since win1.005.00
pass acc avg (last 5)78.8081.00
possession avg (last 5)50.8050.00
rest days5.916.91
scorer concentration0.140.17
season ppg1.211.08
shot diff avg (last 5)1.60-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)11.0010.80
skill v10.260.41
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.30
sot for avg (last 3)3.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.40
squad age28.5126.96
state index-0.20-0.86
sterile dominance v10.350.25
threat rate (last 10)0.210.21
threat rate (last 3)0.220.26
threat rate (last 5)0.220.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.60