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Cartagena 1–2 Oviedo

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Apr 3, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Cartagena win42%2.33
Draw31%3.13
Oviedo win28%3.58

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Oviedo −0.2550%1.93
Cartagena −0.2550%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.60
Over39%2.45

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Luismi · Oviedo
33'🟨Yann Bodiger · Cartagena
39'🟨Borja Bastón · Oviedo
41'⚽ (pen)Rubén Castro · Cartagena
44'🟨Javi Mier · Oviedo
48'🟨Pierre Cornud · Oviedo
51'🟥Dauda Mohammed · Cartagena
70'⚽Joni Montiel · Oviedo
74'🟨Luismi · Oviedo
75'🟥Sergio Tejera · Cartagena
80'🟨Toni Datković

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
10Shots10
2On target4
2Corners3
15Fouls23
4Yellow cards6
3Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricCartagenaOviedo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.390.35
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.26
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.15
box share (last 5)0.580.67
cards avg (last 5)2.002.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal Cartagonova
· Cartagena
81'🟥Gastón Silva · Cartagena
83'🟨Marc Martínez · Cartagena
83'🟨Matheus Aiás · Oviedo
84'🟨Pablo Vázquez · Cartagena
89'🟨Joni Montiel · Oviedo
coach days457.00792.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.10
corner diff avg (last 5)0.400.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.004.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.641.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.07
dominance (last 5)0.530.56
elo1480.821541.17
elo momentum (last 5)-4.6011.36
eye test v10.020.12
eye trend v10.020.21
first sub minute (last 10)62.7060.70
form points (last 5)6.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.200.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.200.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.251.18
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.90
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.630.68
league points55.0050.00
league rank7.0010.00
matches since blank8.004.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8081.20
possession avg (last 5)56.4056.60
rest days7.797.65
scorer concentration0.260.36
season ppg1.491.39
shot diff avg (last 5)1.403.60
shots for avg (last 5)11.6014.20
skill v10.900.86
sot against avg (last 5)3.802.60
sot for avg (last 10)5.103.60
sot for avg (last 3)5.334.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.204.40
squad age29.7827.02
state index-0.160.31
sterile dominance v10.780.50
threat rate (last 10)0.230.21
threat rate (last 3)0.220.26
threat rate (last 5)0.220.25
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00