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Valladolid 4–1 Lugo

← Segunda División 2021 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jon González

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid win69%1.40
Draw20%4.86
Lugo win11%9.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Valladolid −1.2552%1.89
Lugo −1.2548%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.72
Under44%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

9'⚽Óscar Plano · Valladolid
14'🟨Xavi Torres · Lugo
20'🟨Alberto Rodríguez · Lugo
25'🟨Roque Mesa · Valladolid
34'🟨Luis Pérez · Valladolid
51'🟨Joaquín Fernández · Valladolid
57'🟨Anuar · Valladolid
57'🟨Pablo Clavería · Lugo
60'⚽Shon Weissman · Valladolid
76'⚽Anuar · Valladolid
80'🟨Juanpe · Lugo
82'⚽ (pen)Manu Barreiro · Lugo
85'⚽ (pen)Sergio León · Valladolid

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
10Shots7
4On target3
4Corners0
17Fouls15
4Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValladolidLugo
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.130.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.30
box share (last 5)0.530.61
cards avg (last 5)2.402.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal José Zorrilla
coach days305.00366.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.20
corner diff avg (last 5)0.00-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.006.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.003.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.082.50
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.09
dominance (last 5)0.480.33
elo1621.151489.52
elo momentum (last 5)-7.226.08
eye test v10.09-0.70
eye trend v1-0.990.05
first sub minute (last 10)52.7058.70
form points (last 5)9.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.201.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.750.88
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.70
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.45
keeper form v10.76—
league points70.0046.00
league rank2.0015.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet7.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2071.00
possession avg (last 5)50.6040.20
rest days5.916.96
scorer concentration0.250.21
season ppg1.941.24
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.20-8.60
shots for avg (last 5)12.807.60
skill v10.37-1.13
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.303.10
sot for avg (last 3)1.333.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.603.00
squad age26.2228.36
state index0.40-0.44
sterile dominance v10.07-0.36
threat rate (last 10)0.300.24
threat rate (last 3)0.230.20
threat rate (last 5)0.260.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.000.60