← Segunda División 2021 · Sat, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jon González
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valladolid win | 69% | 1.40 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.86 |
| Lugo win | 11% | 9.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valladolid −1.25 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Lugo −1.25 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.72 |
| Under | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Óscar Plano · Valladolid |
| 14' | 🟨 | Xavi Torres · Lugo |
| 20' | 🟨 | Alberto Rodríguez · Lugo |
| 25' | 🟨 | Roque Mesa · Valladolid |
| 34' | 🟨 | Luis Pérez · Valladolid |
| 51' | 🟨 | Joaquín Fernández · Valladolid |
| 57' | 🟨 | Anuar · Valladolid |
| 57' | 🟨 | Pablo Clavería · Lugo |
| 60' | ⚽ | Shon Weissman · Valladolid |
| 76' | ⚽ | Anuar · Valladolid |
| 80' | 🟨 | Juanpe · Lugo |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Manu Barreiro · Lugo |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio León · Valladolid |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 0 |
| 17 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Valladolid | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla |
| coach days | 305.00 | 366.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 2.50 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1621.15 | 1489.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.22 | 6.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.09 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.99 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | — |
| league points | 70.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 71.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 5.91 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 7.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.37 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.22 | 28.36 |
| state index | 0.40 | -0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | -0.36 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |