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Las Palmas 4–2 Leganes

← Segunda División 2021 · Mon, Mar 28, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: Javier Iglesias

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas win45%2.30
Draw30%3.26
Leganes win25%4.22

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Las Palmas −0.2555%1.75
Leganes −0.2545%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.72
Over44%2.21

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

20'⚽Yacine Qasmi · Leganes
23'⚽Armando Sadiku · Las Palmas
26'⚽Kirian Rodríguez · Las Palmas
27'🟨Saúl Coco · Las Palmas
36'🟨Seydouba Cisse · Leganes
37'⚽ (pen)Jonathan Viera · Las Palmas
39'🟨Allan Nyom · Leganes
42'🟨Yacine Qasmi · Leganes
53'🟨Sergi Palencia · Leganes
57'🟨Jimmy Giraudon · Leganes
70'⚽ (og)Álvaro Lemos

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score1
12Shots8
7On target2
3Corners0
14Fouls22
2Yellow cards6
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricLas PalmasLeganes
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.530.33
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.460.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.540.63
cards avg (last 5)3.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de Gran Canaria
· Leganes
75'⚽Armando Sadiku · Las Palmas
80'🟨Rubén Pardo · Leganes
88'🟨Eric Curbelo · Las Palmas
coach days86.00451.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.17
corner diff avg (last 5)1.800.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.404.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.204.80
corners volatility (last 10)2.511.25
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.08
dominance (last 5)0.510.49
elo1497.331538.18
elo momentum (last 5)-6.310.60
eye test v10.71-0.13
eye trend v10.220.22
first sub minute (last 10)57.7057.90
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.880.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.300.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
keeper form v10.680.67
league points51.0044.00
league rank8.0016.00
matches since blank2.007.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.6079.40
possession avg (last 5)57.8052.60
rest days9.078.07
scorer concentration0.160.16
season ppg1.461.22
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-0.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.0010.60
skill v10.970.43
sot against avg (last 5)4.202.80
sot for avg (last 10)5.503.60
sot for avg (last 3)6.334.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.603.80
squad age26.4029.48
state index-0.23-0.04
sterile dominance v10.810.53
threat rate (last 10)0.220.21
threat rate (last 3)0.240.24
threat rate (last 5)0.220.21
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.00