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Mirandes 3–1 Ponferradina

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Mar 27, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: Saúl Ais

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Mirandes win43%2.55
Draw29%3.40
Ponferradina win28%3.88

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ponferradina −0.553%1.80
Mirandes −0.547%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over50%1.94
Under50%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

10'⚽Sergio Camello · Mirandes
23'⚽Alejandro Marqués · Mirandes
44'🟨Paul Anton · Ponferradina
46'🟨Paris Barandiaran · Ponferradina
52'⚽Sergio Camello · Mirandes
60'🟨Alejandro López · Mirandes
65'🟨José Copete · Ponferradina
67'🟨Iñigo Vicente · Mirandes
77'⚽Alexandru Paşcanu · Ponferradina

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
15Shots9
7On target2
6Corners8
10Fouls11
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricMirandesPonferradina
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.400.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.25
box share (last 5)0.650.48
cards avg (last 5)2.802.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio Municipal de Anduva
coach days54.001395.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.14
corner diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.80
corners volatility (last 10)1.491.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.110.08
dominance (last 5)0.540.43
elo1466.711537.41
elo momentum (last 5)52.083.58
eye test v10.75-0.30
eye trend v10.300.15
first sub minute (last 10)57.6053.90
form points (last 5)12.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.40
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.351.23
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.001.00
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.65
keeper form v10.670.74
league points45.0061.00
league rank15.005.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet9.001.00
matches since win0.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.2070.20
possession avg (last 5)52.2039.60
rest days7.966.88
scorer concentration0.280.23
season ppg1.251.69
shot diff avg (last 5)2.20-4.20
shots for avg (last 5)15.4011.60
skill v10.39-1.25
sot against avg (last 5)4.605.80
sot for avg (last 10)4.803.70
sot for avg (last 3)6.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)5.803.60
squad age24.0028.54
state index0.42-0.08
sterile dominance v1-0.17-1.28
threat rate (last 10)0.270.27
threat rate (last 3)0.280.33
threat rate (last 5)0.300.31
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.60