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Ponferradina 2–2 Eibar

← Segunda División 2021 · Sun, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Álvaro Moreno

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Eibar win34%2.92
Ponferradina win34%2.84
Draw32%3.10

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Ponferradina +050%1.93
Eibar +050%1.98

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under61%1.60
Over39%2.45

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

-5'🟥Kike Saverio · Ponferradina
5'⚽Sergi Enrich · Ponferradina
28'🟨Sergi Enrich · Ponferradina
31'🟨Ricard Pujol · Ponferradina
43'⚽Yuri · Ponferradina
61'🟨Stoichkov · Eibar
64'🟨Chema · Eibar
74'⚽Fernando Llorente · Eibar
77'🟨Álvaro Tejero · Eibar
79'🟥Fernando Llorente · Eibar
90'🟨Frederico Venâncio · Eibar
90'⚽Fran Sol · Eibar

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
13Shots16
5On target6
4Corners6
8Fouls15
2Yellow cards4
1Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricPonferradinaEibar
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.30
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.37
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.330.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.460.62
cards avg (last 5)1.803.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio El Toralín
coach days1388.00292.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.10
corner diff avg (last 5)-3.20-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)7.005.40
corners for avg (last 5)3.803.20
corners volatility (last 10)1.511.45
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.07
dominance (last 5)0.460.54
elo1535.891649.18
elo momentum (last 5)13.17-10.07
eye test v1-0.38-0.23
eye trend v10.110.32
first sub minute (last 10)52.1056.10
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.230.63
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
ht lead rate (last 20)0.600.55
keeper form v10.770.75
league points60.0074.00
league rank5.001.00
matches since blank0.004.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win3.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)71.8075.60
possession avg (last 5)41.8053.80
rest days7.797.00
scorer concentration0.210.38
season ppg1.712.11
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.001.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.6010.80
skill v1-0.960.17
sot against avg (last 5)5.002.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.60
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.404.00
squad age26.9229.47
state index0.040.54
sterile dominance v1-0.840.49
threat rate (last 10)0.250.23
threat rate (last 3)0.290.22
threat rate (last 5)0.270.20
venue ppg (last 5)1.602.40