← Segunda División 2021 · Sat, Mar 12, 05:15 PM UTC · ref: Juan Pulido
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 65% | 1.47 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.50 |
| Lugo win | 13% | 8.81 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lugo −1.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Almeria −1.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Umar Sadiq · Almeria |
| 37' | ⚽ | Ricard Sánchez · Lugo |
| 49' | ⚽ | Umar Sadiq · Almeria |
| 67' | ⚽ | Pablo Clavería · Lugo |
| 72' | ⚽ (og) | Pablo Clavería · Almeria |
| 79' | ⚽ | José Ángel Carrillo · Lugo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Pablo Clavería · Lugo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Almeria | Lugo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos |
| coach days | 345.00 | 345.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.52 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1611.06 | 1489.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.13 | -3.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.56 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.40 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.85 |
| league points | 64.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 7.89 | 6.18 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.20 | -11.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | -1.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.74 | 28.30 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.18 | -0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |