← Segunda División 2021 · Sat, Mar 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gorka Sagues
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Mirandes win | 42% | 2.31 |
| Cartagena win | 30% | 3.25 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.59 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Cartagena −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Mirandes −0.25 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Estadio Municipal de Anduva |