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Zaragoza 2–1 Fuenlabrada

← Segunda División 2021 · Fri, Mar 11, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: Eduardo Prieto

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Zaragoza win48%2.14
Draw31%3.25
Fuenlabrada win22%4.50

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Fuenlabrada −0.554%1.80
Zaragoza −0.546%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under66%1.47
Over34%2.83

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'🟨Mohamed Bouldini · Fuenlabrada
30'🟨Pedro León · Fuenlabrada
32'⚽ (og)Jair Amador · Fuenlabrada
37'🟨Juan Narváez · Zaragoza
37'🟨Javier Ontiveros · Fuenlabrada
53'🟨Alejandro Sotillos · Fuenlabrada
54'⚽Ivan Azón · Zaragoza
75'⚽Miguel Puche · Zaragoza
84'🟨Adrián Diéguez · Fuenlabrada
86'🟨Alejandro Francés · Zaragoza

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
15Shots7
8On target2
7Corners2
16Fouls18
2Yellow cards5
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricZaragozaFuenlabrada
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.48
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.370.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.640.55
cards avg (last 5)2.202.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueEstadio de la Romareda
coach days587.0010.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.07
corner diff avg (last 5)1.00-0.80
corners against avg (last 5)4.606.80
corners for avg (last 5)5.606.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.621.93
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.12
dominance (last 5)0.520.45
elo1519.171429.36
elo momentum (last 5)43.80-10.84
eye test v10.25-0.04
eye trend v10.370.62
first sub minute (last 10)57.0053.80
form points (last 5)12.003.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.920.99
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.50
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.10
keeper form v10.730.69
league points46.0028.00
league rank9.0022.00
matches since blank7.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.003.00
matches since win0.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8063.40
possession avg (last 5)46.4041.00
rest days7.006.21
scorer concentration0.220.24
season ppg1.390.88
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-2.00
shots for avg (last 5)13.0011.40
skill v1-0.39-1.77
sot against avg (last 5)4.204.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.003.70
sot for avg (last 3)5.006.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.80
squad age26.0728.11
state index0.44-0.83
sterile dominance v1-0.57-1.26
threat rate (last 10)0.270.29
threat rate (last 3)0.290.30
threat rate (last 5)0.280.28
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.20